Toyota has more to worry about than its lack of progress on EVs - time is running out for the brand's lead on hybrid car technology as Hyundai, Kia, Honda and more roll out rivals | Analysis

Toyota has built its lead in Australia not just on its reputation for reliability and its expansive range of nameplates, but in more recent years its range of desirable plugless hybrids.

The technology, which Toyota has had in-market for more than 20 years since the launch of the very first Prius, is effortless, smooth to drive, and cuts your fuel bill in half. In a story of death by a thousand cuts though, I’d argue Toyota’s lead in fuel-saving tech is being threatened from all sides, and its time in the lead may already be behind it.

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Toyota’s hybrids are no longer the most fuel efficient

The thought occurred to me this week while I was testing the new Hyundai i30 hybrid sedan. Over 200km of testing, not really trying to hypermile it, the vehicle I had returned an impressive fuel consumption figure of just 4.0L/100km. The best I could manage in its Corolla equivalent was about 4.8L/100km. It’s not an isolated case either. A Kona hybrid we recently put in a comparison test produced a ridiculous at-the-pump figure of just 3.6L/100km.

I also very much enjoyed my time in the Civic hybrid recently.

Hyundai is not the only torchbearer of more efficient tech. Kias use the same hybrid systems as their Hyundai relations, while Hondas and even GWM Havals use a similar system to the Toyotas and produce equivalent efficiency numbers.

For real efficiency nerds, there’s of course the option of a plug-in hybrid. But excluding MG’s sharply priced HS mid-size SUV these are far more expensive and difficult to extract the maximum benefit from for mainstream acceptance.

Toyota’s hybrid system is no longer the only option

By this, I mean that there are now more interesting, and potentially more versatile versions of hybrid technology already on the market. To be fair here, Toyota’s hybrid synergy drive is so successful in part because it is so clever.

While it is marketed as an ‘e-CVT’ the truth is the system is an electrified transaxle, which uses two electric motors and a two-speed orbital gear (like a traditional automatic). To the end user, the ultimate result feels like a CVT, and the drive ratio, thanks to those electric motors, is basically continuously variable, but it’s not what we usually consider to be a traditional ‘CVT’ which is better thought of as swapping out either orbital or traditional gears for what boils down to a flexible band on a cone.

The thought occurred to me this week while I was testing the new Hyundai i30 hybrid sedan.

It’s smooth, easy to drive, and acceleration is linear. It is also reliable and affordable, thanks to the system being relatively mechanically simple (though, ultimately quite complex in its execution).

But new versions of the technology have come to rival it using fresh thinking. Hyundai’s hybrid tech, for example, is a dual-clutch automatic, with an electric motor placed where the clutch is to facilitate the electric driving component. Mazda’s mild and plug-in hybrids work in a similar fashion. Both are more efficient, because using a clutch leads to less loss than using either continuously variable or a hydraulic coupling in the system.

This is part of the reason that Hyundai and Kia hybrids are so efficient, and also part of the reason that Mazda is betting heavily on the technology in its new plug-in and mild-hybrid CX-60, despite the fact that it is much less smooth than its rival transaxle systems.

Meanwhile, Nissan has flipped the entire formula on its head, making its e-Power hybrids drive the wheels with only electric motors, removing the need for a transmission altogether. This system offers the unrivalled smoothness of an electric system, whilst using the engine only as a range-extending power source.

A Kona hybrid we recently put in a comparison test produced a ridiculous at-the-pump figure of just 3.6L/100km.

Thus far, and unfortunately for Nissan, this method has proven to be less fuel efficient than Toyota or Hyundai hybrids. Using the X-Trail e-Power as an example, our most recent long-term test had it consuming 6.9L/100km, while an equivalent RAV4 will consume a full litre less on-test (despite its claim being a whole 2.0L/100km less) 

To be fair, the version that currently sits in the X-Trail and Qashqai is only the first version of the tech, so Nissan will no doubt have room to improve.

Range-extender tech like this can offer other benefits too, like direct electric drive on each axle for theoretically better off-road ability and more fine control for torque-vectoring.

The walls are closing in on all sides of the price spectrum

One of Toyota’s biggest continuing advantages from being in the hybrid space for so many years, and the relative simplicity of its technology, has helped it keep prices down. Most Toyota hybrids are only priced $2000 - $3000 higher than their combustion equivalents, and the tech is generally available on most variants, even the more affordable ones.

Kias use the same hybrid systems as their Hyundai relations.

For the most part, Toyota’s price advantage continues. Nissan and Honda hybrids are, thus far, exclusively available on high-spec cars and carry a big price hike over their combustion versions (for example, the Civic e:HEV LX comes in at a whopping $55,000 drive-away while the equivalent Corolla ZR Hybrid can be had from $39,100 before on-roads). It makes questionable value swapping into a Nissan or a Honda right now, as you may never recoup the additional costs in fuel savings.

Hyundai though, which offers hybrid on the base i30 sedan ($33,000 before on-roads) and Kona SUV ($36,000) is now on-par, if not slightly cheaper than Toyota, whilst saving you even more fuel.

Toyota’s biggest threat on the price front doesn’t come from these traditional players though. Instead the brand is facing price pressure from new Chinese rivals.

I recently ran a GWM Haval Jolion Ultra hybrid as a long-term tester. It’s a top-spec car ($40,990 drive-away) which can be had for the same money once you add on-road costs as a mid-grade Corolla Cross GXL ($37,730 before on-roads). Unlike its MG contemporary, GWM Haval has bet on plugless hybrids, and its hybrid transaxle system works more similarly to Toyotas than others.

Using the X-Trail e-Power as an example, our most recent long-term test had it consuming 6.9L/100km.

During my time in the Jolion it proved as smooth and easy to drive as a Toyota (with the exception of the particularly annoying safety tech - but that’s a story for another time). It also produced an impressive fuel consumption figure of 4.6L/100km, which is about what you can expect from the Toyota anyway.

The next big threat for Toyota will be the next-generation MG3, set to arrive before the end of 2024. This little hatch will use a 1.5-litre four-cylinder engine paired to a 100kW electric motor via a three-speed automatic transmission. It will not be as affordable as the sub-$20k outgoing car, but it could be the most affordable hybrid in Australia.

While Hondas are also more expensive than their Toyota equivalents, I also very much enjoyed my time in the Civic hybrid recently. I’d go so far as to say it’s the best new hatchback I’ve driven in a long time, but what sets it apart hybrid-wise is that its electric motor packs a bigger punch than Toyotas, making it (fittingly) much more fun to drive.

To be fair, the version that currently sits in the X-Trail and Qashqai is only the first version of the tech, so Nissan will no doubt have room to improve.

Conclusion

In the last few months I have driven no less than four plugless hybrids which have offered at least some advantage over a Toyota equivalent, and all four were either priced the same, less, or only marginally more expensive.

While Toyota’s lead may take some time to erode, during the time the brand has been distracted catching up on EVs and its enormous production backlogs, the best days for its core hybrid range may already be behind it as rivals have now well and truly caught up.