Toyota's worst nightmare? How Ford Australia can corner the commercial market with the incoming F-150, Ranger, Transit and Transit Custom

Market dominance is something to which Toyota is no stranger in this country. In fact, the brand has a long history of being the country’s best-selling marque, as well as a similarly lengthy background in offering the best-selling models in their respective segments.

Marketing has been a large part of that success, but so too has the reliability and quality of the vehicle line-up that has earned the brand its gold-standard reputation. 

But that success is also down to the actual product and the way it meets the needs and wants of its target audience. Not to mention that there’s traditionally been a Toyota model for every possible market niche.

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Of course, Toyota has traditionally been strong in light-commercial vehicles. Its LandCruiser dynasty needs no introduction, nor does the decades-long history of the HiLux and HiAce. But when it comes to those latter vehicles, there’s a brand that’s not only already giving the Toyota establishment some real marketplace curry, but a brand that could emerge as a serious threat to Toyota’s domination of these market segments.

And that company? None other than Ford.

To say that Ford is shaping up as Toyota’s worst nightmare is probably an exaggeration, but it remains that the Blue Oval is creeping into Toyota’s territory with the products it has planned for Down Under.

The Ford Ranger Raptor is, of course, a well-known quantity. But with a new model just around the corner, neither the stakes nor the market anticipation have ever been higher. 

And let’s not forget that the Ranger has, on occasions, bested the its Toyota opposite number, the Hilux, in head-to-head sales on a monthly basis. Heck, the Ranger actually even knocked the HiLux off its 4x4 ute perch for the 2021 sales year, by more than 6000 sales from a total of almost 46,000 units. 

Even when you added the 4x2 utes (Toyota heartland, right there) into that mix, Toyota emerged the ute segment winner, but only by a couple of thousand vehicles. 

Clearly, an all-new Ranger (which will be a shared platform with VW, forming the next Amarok) stands to be a big hitter.

So, what about the HiAce? In the medium van segment where both the HiAce and Ford’s entrant, the Transit Custom operate, the Toyota is still well and truly king. 

In 2021, Toyota sold 9726 HiAces versus just 2488 Transit Customs, but there’s absolutely no doubt that the clever, constantly improving Ford van is shaping up as a real force in the market.

Unfortunately for Toyota, there endeth the good news. And that’s purely because, at that point, the Toyota ute and van range is tapped out other than the 70-Series Toyota ute which, in 2021, sold 12,227 units. But even though that was its second year of record sales in a row, it’s still well behind the HiLux and Ranger which are not only stellar-selling utes, they’re the best-selling vehicles in the country across all segments.

But Ford? Well, it would seem Ford still has a few cards up its sleeve. Those start with the news that the new Ranger Raptor will be a whole new ball game with its twin-turbo, 3.0-litre V6 petrol engine and 292kW output. Does Toyota have anything to get toe-to-toe with that? No, but then, nor does any other mainstream player.

Even more enticing is the notion that the Ford Bronco might eventually make it into Ford showrooms here, too. That’s unlikely given statements so far from Ford, but given there’s a Raptor version of the Bronco (and the platform is already engineered for right-hand-drive per the Ranger) it’s a fair bet Ford will be watching how sales of the Ranger Raptor go.

Ford Australia also has its eye on the electric future, with the full-sized Transit van and mid-size Transit Custom both confirmed with all-electric powertrains in the future as the Blue Oval brand’s first tailpipe emissions-free models locally.

But there’s also another Ford commercial that we will definitely see in showrooms, and its another model for which Toyota seems to have no answer locally.

The F-150 is set to join the ranks of the hot-selling full-sized pick-ups from mid-next year and will be available with a 3.5-litre turbo-petrol V6 making a meaty 298kW of power. 

Of course, Ford doesn’t build the F-150 in right-hand-drive form (which is why the model disappeared from our shore many years ago) but such is Ford’s determination to grab a slice of a growing, very profitable market, that it’s enlisted local engineering firm RMA Automotive to set-up a Melbourne facility where the big pick-ups will have their steering wheels switched to the other side.

It seems like a lot of trouble to go to, but you can see why when you look at the sales statistics. Ram sold almost 4000 units of the 1500 pick-up in Australian in 2021, while rival brand GMSV sold more than 2000 Silverados. Both those vehicles follow the F-150 model in being imported as left-hand-drive vehicles and converted locally. And like those two, the Ford F-150 will also be sold through the official dealer network with a full Ford factory warranty.

So what about Toyota’s full-sized Stateside pick-up, the Tundra? That still seems like a no-go according to statements by Toyota over the past couple of years. Apart from a couple of promising murmurs late last year, the trail seems to have gone a bit cold with Toyota now saying the idea is under consideration but that there are no existing plans to manufacture the Tundra in right-hand-drive form.

Would a US-flavoured Toyota sell here? Almost certainly. The acceptance of the brand by the off-road fraternity is unmatched by any other brand in Australia, and there’s no reason to suggest that there wouldn’t be brand-loyalty cross-over between segments. Commercial vehicle buyers understand Toyota; the brand and what it stands for, and doubtless there are a few Toyota dealers out there hoping for a change of corporate heart.

The biggest sticking point is likely to be the requirement to convert the vehicles locally to right-hand-drive. Toyota has a tradition of keeping engineering in house as much as possible, and the idea of farming out such a critical engineering element might just be a trust-me too far for this most conservative of carmakers.