Articles by Stephen Ottley

Three recent news stories, that were seemingly unrelated, may shake-up the entire automotive landscape around the globe.Newton’s Third Law of Motion tells us that for every action, there is an equal or opposite reaction. Basically, when an object or thing exerts force one, an equal amount of force is projected the opposite way.This is relevant because three very different, and seemingly unconnected, events of recent weeks have set the foundation for an entirely new world order across the car industry.Firstly, the European Union has begun backtracking on its much-hyped plan to ban all petrol and diesel new vehicle sales by 2035. Secondly, more recently, the US government announced it was reversing a key scientific finding that had shaped its car industry for the past 15 years. Finally, the Chinese government announced it will ban yoke-style steering wheels, following its earlier ban on flush-finished door handles, while also pushing for more physical buttons (rather than screens).So what brings all these stories together? Well, as Newton tells us, as both the European Union and the USA start to falter on their future plans, the Chinese car industry is positioning itself to become the global leader.The challenge for carmakers is they transcend both borders and political terms, for the most part. Election cycles are typically every four years or so in most countries, but car companies simply cannot operate on such short-term thinking.So, while on paper, the scrapping of emissions laws in America means the likes of Chevrolet, Ram, Ford and the rest can start pumping out V8-powered pick-ups at record pace, the long-term reality of that is very different.There is no question that governments - and the automotive industry - have deeply mis-read the electric vehicle market and the expected timeline it will take to shift the majority of new-car buyers out of an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle.Electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for less than 20 per cent (17.4% to be precise) of total vehicle sales in Europe in 2025, with petrol and diesel engines still making up 35.5 per cent - the largest share of the total market.However, while the US and Europe are having to make changes and roll back legislation, the Chinese industry continues to push forward. Coupled with the enormous domestic buying power of the Chinese market, plus the continued aggressive international expansion - which includes recently negotiated new deals in Europe and Canada - and it suggests the balance of power is tipping in a new direction.While the US effectively unleashes its auto industry to produce cars with no emissions limits, the Chinese are imposing not only stricter fuel economy for ICE models but also higher expectations of EV energy consumption.Whether you prefer an ICE or EV, the average motorists doesn’t want to pay more for fuel/electricity than they have to - that’s a fairly standard consumer sentiment around the world. So while deregulation may make it easier for US brands to make cleaner and less-efficient vehicles, that isn’t always a good thing - as the Australian experience demonstrates.The governments here gave significant leeway to Holden, Ford and Toyota to not match increasingly cleaner, more fuel-efficient vehicles from Europe. That undoubtedly helped the industry at the time, but it also meant customers looked elsewhere for a new car that would cut their ongoing running costs. In the end, the Australian industry faltered and failed anyway, and now the industry has been forced into a dramatic catch-up (the New Vehicle Efficiency Standards) that is causing stress across the entire market.Will we see a similar trend in the years to come? Perhaps the American auto industry will become increasingly inwards focused, targeting the US domestic market. European and other international brands will see it as an opportunity to push through existing ICE technology into the US as well, while limiting the EV push to those markets more eager to embrace it.It will mean the US industry falls behind the rest of the world (again), but perhaps more importantly, opens the door for the Chinese industry to position itself as a global leader. A market that sets the trends and expectations for not only its own country, but Australia and the rest of the world that are looking for more efficient models, whether they are petrol, hybrid or electric powered.Only time will tell, but the events of recent weeks may have ramifications that shake up the global automotive industry for decades to come.

Tesla is Australia’s most popular electric vehicle (EV) brand… but for how much longer?

Have you ever felt like things are spiralling out of control lately? That horrible feeling that you know something is wrong and people are standing idly by and allowing it to happen regardless?I have increasingly felt that way about new car safety, so much so I feel the time has come to draw a line in the sand.Let me be clear from the beginning — safety should be everyone’s top priority in the car industry. Whether it’s engineers, designers, salespeople and even us motoring writers - we should all be doing our best to ensure that you (the new car buyer) get the safest car possible.However, in recent years I have started to feel that new car safety has not only stopped improving consistently, but has actually begun to regress. Why? The over-reliance on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and the seemingly inconsistent way it is applied to new vehicles and equally inconsistent ways cars with poor technology are applauded by third parties and hailed as superior.I am fortunate enough to drive dozens of new cars every year and increasingly the difference between good active safety systems and bad ones are becoming more and more apparent, frankly annoying and distracting.The systems I’m talking about are ones like ‘driver attention monitoring’, ‘speed limit recognition’, ‘active lane keeping assistance’ and similar. Good versions of these systems keep you alert, informed and safe. Bad versions of these systems are distracting to the point of dangerous.That’s because, unfortunately, for many brands adding these active safety systems became a box ticking exercise, simply having them was enough as they weren’t tested in the real world by safety authorities, even though brands were punished for not having them.As Peter Matkin, Chery’s Director of International Engineering for International Programs, told me last year, many of these systems are developed by third-party suppliers who are simply working to a theoretical range and aren’t practically applying it to real-world situations.“When we started with all of the ADAS work, we were effectively just meeting legislation,” Matkins conceded. “We told the suppliers, this is the legal requirement, we need to meet this. So from a supplier perspective, he doesn't care whether the car bounces between the lanes. He doesn't care. When I drive the car, I say, ‘this is shit, we're not selling this.’ So, you know, we now give a lot more targets now, to the supplier.”That’s a refreshingly honest answer from a car company engineer and it’s good to know that people like Matkin are working to ensure that systems actually work for customers on the road and not just on a piece of paper.Recently I drove a new vehicle that beeped incessantly, any time the speed limit changed or if I didn’t slow down fast enough, or even if I just looked away. Literally, on several occasions it beeped to warn me that I was ‘mildly distracted’ at which point I looked down to see what the beeping was about (in case it was something dangerous) only for the system to then beep again and tell me I was ‘moderately distracted’ — by the car’s own beeps! The end result of poorly calibrated ADAS is drivers will find a way to turn it off, which unfortunately tends to be required every time you start the car - which is a deliberate requirement from legislators that typically travel in the back seats, rather than the driver’s seat…What’s the difference between a car that doesn’t have active lane keeping and one that does, but has such a bad system the driver turns it off every time they start the car? Both cars operate the majority of the time without the system, so a sub-standard system is effectively useless. ANCAP, to its credit, has updated its testing protocols for 2026 to try and address some of these issues. Its testing will now try and provide a more detailed analysis of how the various active safety systems work and encourage more seamless operation.Because, make no mistake, properly calibrated ADAS can work and when it does it’s brilliant. Some brands are clearly spending more time on these systems than others, and the net result is a safer experience for the driver without any of the irritating distraction of endless beeps and warnings.Unfortunately, the recent rush to ensure all these systems were installed regardless of functionality means there will be a generation of dangerous distracting cars on our roads for the foreseeable future.

Love it or hate it, the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) appears to be working.Well, at least in part.For those unfamiliar, the Federal Government’s goal is to get more hybrid and electric vehicles on the road, and to incentivise that it will punish brands that exceed the emissions targets it has set. But car companies will get emissions ‘credits’ for every electric vehicle (EV) they sell, which puts the onus on car makers to sell more EVs.Which explains why every brand from Alfa Romeo to Zeekr is looking to sell more EVs (or plug-in hybrids that help lower the average fleet emission figure) as soon as possible.It also explains why there are some increasingly large EV discounts and more and more affordable EVs hitting the market.For a prime example of this, look no further than Hyundai’s recent announcement of huge discounts across its Kona range, which coincides with the upcoming launch of another new EV model for the brand (its sixth electric option), the Elexio.When we say ‘huge discounts’ that’s not hyperbole, the Kona Electric has been slashed by up to $13,857 on some variants. Every electric Kona variant has been cut by at least $13k, in a likely sign Hyundai Australia is looking to get itself as many EV credits as possible to compensate for the rest of its line-up. Another way to look at this is, Hyundai is effectively making a choice to take a financial hit to help its wider business, and rather than take the hit in the form of a fine, it’s turning it into a positive and handing a massive price saving to potential customers.These price cuts happened to coincide with Hyundai Australia’s new - and independently run - finance arm, Hyundai Capital Australia, striking a deal with the Federal Government’s Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC).The CEFC will commit $60 million to Hyundai Capital, allowing the business to offer discounted interest rates to EV customers for both Hyundai and Kia electric models under the luxury car tax, further stimulating sales.Or at least that is the hope from the government’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen.“This CEFC investment will help lower the cost barrier for households and small businesses, making EV ownership more accessible,” Minister Bowen said.“Transport is one of our biggest sources of emissions, and electric vehicles are a key way we cut pollution while saving people money.”At the same time, several other brands are introducing more affordable EVs that are either close to parity with petrol-powered rivals, or in some cases cheaper, further lowering the barriers to entry. The BYD Atto 1 is the prime example of this trend. Starting at just $23,990 (plus on-road costs) it’s the cheapest EV on sale at the time of publication. By contrast, the petrol-powered Mazda2 starts at $28,190 and the Toyota Yaris Hybrid starts at $28,990.The BYD Dolphin and Atto 2, GWM Ora, MG4, Chery E5, Leapmotor B10 and Hyundai Inster can all be purchased for less than $40,000 drive-away.Australians are increasingly adopting EVs, with the more than 100,000 battery-powered vehicles sold in 2025. That took the overall percentage of the new car market to 8.3 per cent, which is small but growing. And it’s likely to continue to grow if EVs continue to get more affordable as NVES and other factors push car companies to find ways to make them more appealing to customers.

For the past two years Chinese car brands seemed to be in the fast lane to sales success — but it looks like at least one brand has hit the brakes.The latest new car sales data, released for January, shows further decline for MG to start 2026 after suffering a significant 18.4 per cent sales drop in 2025. The formerly British brand still held onto its place in the top 10, but will need a quick turnaround to maintain that as the year progresses.Business Director for MG Motor Australia Kevin Gannon said: "A challenging market across the industry makes our upward movement in ranking hard fought. January results reflect how MG Motor is entering 2026 with a great expanded product line up suited to local needs, we've been here for 10 years, we're planning for the next 10 years and more, and that we're fully committed to being the brand of choice of Australian drivers this year."The 2025 result was particularly notable given the brand’s aggressive product expansion last year, with the new-generation HS and MG3 as well as the all-new QS and S5 SUVs plus the much-hyped U9 ute. On top of this, there was the launch of the IM Motors sub-brand, which adds its sales to MG’s total.Former MG Australia boss Peter Ciao, had high expectations, telling CarsGuide in April last year that he was anticipating around 60,000 sales thanks to the expanded line-up. In the end the brand finished with 41,298.The January results show major year-on-year declines for the MG3 (down 38.6%), MG4 (down 63.9%) and MG5 (down 91.4%). The good news for the brand is both the HS (up 38.5%) and ZS (up 4.5%) remain popular with buyers.However, the problem for the brand appears to be the acceptance of its new models. The QS in particular has struggled to make a major impact in the large SUV segment, finishing 2025 with just 1023 sales, compared to the most popular model in the class, the Ford Everest, which sold more than 26,000 units.The U9 also failed to make a major difference to MG’s Australian hopes, despite getting to market quickly and with a competitive price. It averaged just 157 sales per month after going on sale in October, well below the most popular models in the segment.Ciao’s aspirations of MG becoming a top three brand in the country appear to be on the backburner for now, with new management set to be installed following this sales slide.MG parent company, SAIC Motor International (SMIL), announced in early January that Quing Zhang, currently the Vice President of SMIL will add CEO of MG Australia and New Zealand to his responsibilities, replacing Ciao. He will not be based at the company’s Sydney office however, instead Felix Jiang has been appointed as Senior Vice President for Australia and New Zealand and will be based here to lead the day-to-day operations.“SAIC Motor has established an excellent footing in the ANZ market over the past decade, and we now look forward with great excitement to fuelling our next phase of growth by introducing innovative products that deeply resonate with and meet local demands,” Zhang said at the time of his appointment.A leadership change is typical when a brand fails to reach its sales targets, and doesn’t negate the work that Ciao did in the eight years he led the local operation. But it is clear that MG is headed in the wrong direction on the sales charts so something needed to change.Whether or not the brand can recover in time, or will now have to play a supporting role behind the more popular Chinese brands — BYD, GWM and Chery — remains to be seen.

While several big name car makers walk back their all-electric plans, the suggestion that electric vehicles are yesterday’s news doesn’t tally with growing sales.Electric vehicle (EV) sales still only account for 8.3 per cent of the total market, but grew significantly in the key SUV and light commercial vehicle segments. Notably, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) have also grown significantly in recent years and combined EV and PHEV sales accounted for more than 13 per cent of the overall market.While there is still clearly a long way to go, there are also some clear signs that Australians are slowly starting to embrace EVs as they become more diverse in both price and type. Until last year, the market was dominated by Tesla, with the American brand often accounting for more than half the total EV sales.In 2025 the Tesla Model Y remained the best-selling EV, but the BYD Sealion 7 was its closest rival and the Kia EV5 and Geely EX5 also sold in good numbers. In total there were 10 EVs in the top 100 selling vehicles last year, underlining the increasing variety that is attracting new customers.BYD is the leading in this regard with four of the most popular EVs coming from the Chinese brand, and each very different propositions appealing to different buyers. These are the Sealion 7 mid-size SUV, Atto 3 small SUV, Seal sedan and Dolphin hatch.The arrival of the $23,990 Atto 1 will open up the EV market to even more customers too, as it will be amongst the most-affordable new cars on sale this year. In many respects, this is the moment the market has been waiting for, with EVs effectively achieving price parity with conventional petrol and diesel models. While not every EV is as price-competitive as the Atto 1, the increasing cost of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles only helps make EVs more appealing to buyers looking to save on their fuel bill.The growth of PHEVs will only further accelerate the electric future, as the long-touted ‘bridging technology’ will introduce more motorists to electric performance, while still allowing for the ICE back-up.PHEV sales have been on a sharp upward trajectory the past two years, growing more than 130 per cent in 2025 off the back of the BYD Shark 6, BYD Sealion 6, Mitsubishi Outlander and GWM Haval H6 GT. PHEV sales are expected to grow in 2026 and beyond, as more established brands, including market-leading Toyota, join the race. This will only accelerate the electrification on Australian roads, adding to the significant volume of hybrids already sold.While there is still some way to go before EVs become a majority on the roads, a reminder they account for less than 10 per cent at present, it’s clear that despite a slowing down of interest from manufacturers, electric cars are here to stay.Best selling electric cars 2025

Ready or not, there is a new world order coming to the Australian new car market. The established order at the top of the sales charts is set to change dramatically in the near-future as local buyers continue to embrace the Chinese car brands.Like Japanese and Korean cars that came before, the initial backlash has given way to widespread acceptance and analysing the sales trends from recent years makes it clear that several of the leading Chinese brands are on the verge of cracking the top five in sales in 2026.But, as Newton’s Third Law of Motion tells us, for every action there is an equal or opposite reaction, which means brands that have been firmly ensconced in the top five on the sales charts will drop out.So, who will be the lucky Chinese brand to crack the upper echelon first? And which more established brand is most likely to drop out?For the first question there are two stand-out candidates and two more wild card options. GWM and BYD are the current leaders of the Chinese brands, finishing in seventh and eighth place on the 2025 sales charts. That’s a rise from 10th and 15th in ‘24, as GWM enjoyed a very healthy 23.4 per cent increase in sales last year, while BYD managed a staggering 156.2 per cent increase. But that wasn’t the biggest growing Chinese brand. That title belongs to Chery, which just missed out on a top 10 sales finish with 34,889 sales in 25, which was a massive 176.8 per cent growth on the previous year. And those figures don’t include the 3721 Omoda and Jaecoo sales. The final wild card is MG, which notched 41,298 sales in ‘25 but suffered a 18.4 per cent decline and fell from seventh to 10th on the charts. MG will need a dramatic turnaround but has installed new management specifically to address that problem.GWM and BYD are the clear-priced favourites to upset the order and put more pressure on the likes of Hyundai, Kia and Mazda in ‘26 and beyond. Both are investing in expanded line-ups, while GWM is going a step further and locally-tuning its new models to even further appeal to Australian customers.So who is the brand under the most threat of a sales ladder fall? Hyundai finished in fifth place in ‘25, but that was a clear improvement on ‘24, with the brand enjoying 7.7 per cent sales growth.Kia was next up, but was effectively neutral last year, reporting less than one per cent (0.4%) sales growth. Given this came despite the addition of the highly-anticipated Tasman ute, that’s not a positive result for the brand and puts more pressure on in ‘26.Mazda claimed third place, but suffered a 4.2 per cent sales decline, however, with sales over 90,000 units it can probably be considered fairly safe unless there is a dramatic change in the near-future.For either GWM or BYD to jump into the top five sellers they will need to add more than 25,000 sales. While that’s undoubtedly a huge jump, BYD actually attracted more than 31,000 new customers in 2025 - so it’s not impossible. Especially as it will add four models full-time this year - Atto 1, Atto 2, Sealion 5 and Sealion 8.So, while Toyota is likely to stay comfortably ahead of everyone else, the rest of the established order is up for grabs as Australian customers embrace these new brands and put pressure on the bigger names.

Tesla’s electric vehicle dominance came to an end in 2025, losing its global sales crown to BYD as it experienced its second consecutive year of declining sales.But most worryingly for the American brand, there is no reason to believe 2026 will be any better.For the first time official sales data credited BYD with 2.24 million electric vehicle sales, comfortably ahead of Tesla’s 1.64 million. While a win is a win, it’s the reasons why BYD trumped Tesla that should be of most concern to Elon Musk and his team.BYD out-performed Tesla despite suffering its weakest sales growth in its domestic market, but while enjoying sales growth in Europe and Australia. Notably, while Tesla remained Australia’s biggest seller of electric vehicles, with 28,856 recorded sales, BYD closed in dramatically, notching 25,207 EV sales (for direct comparison, that figure excludes its plug-in hybrid models).What really helps BYD’s cause moving forward is its focus on expanding its offerings and markets globally. Canada recently removed some of its restrictions on Chinese-made cars, which opens up a new growth region, and Europe has eased its hardline stance too.BYD has already confirmed the Atto 1, Atto 2, Sealion 5 and Sealion 8 will all be in Australian showrooms shortly, joining the Atto 3, Dolphin, Seal, Sealion 6 and 7 as well as the Shark 6. And that’s just the models confirmed, with either all-new or already available options likely to be added when the time is right.In contrast, Tesla is betting, once again, on technology. Musk’s current focus (at least in terms of Tesla) is growing both its robotaxi business and developing humanoid robots. Not a new, more-affordable car to compete with the Atto 1, but robots. BYD, on the other hand, is focused on making cars and expanding its portfolio to reach new customers. It doesn’t take a deep automotive industry analysis to assess which plan is the more likely chance of success.While there may well be a need for millions of humanoid robots suddenly over the next decade, the more humble reality is most people will be happy with a new car - even one they have to drive themselves.Which is really the difference between the two companies. BYD is a car manufacturer, Tesla is a technology company that happens to make cars. Musk has always seen Tesla as something different, something unconventional and the hard reality is that will ultimately limit its potential as a car maker. Don’t believe me? Well, just look how much time and resources Toyota, the world’s biggest car company, is investing in humanoid robots…That’s the underlying goal for BYD - beating Toyota. Becoming the biggest EV brand is merely a stepping stone along the way to its end goal. Although, achieving that will be a much harder task.In the short-term, there is seemingly little chance Tesla can recover the lost ground to BYD. The Chinese brand should be able to grow further in 2026, while Tesla faces an uncertain year ahead with no brand-new products coming and seemingly waning interest in what is already available.What Tesla needs in the short-term (and long-term) are more vehicles to sell. The Model 3/Y market is saturated, particularly in Australia, and the much-hyped Cybertruck has been a sales flop. Without new products to drive sales, Tesla will have to get comfortable not being the world leader in electric cars.

Mazda has been on a rapid expansion in recent years, introducing so many new large SUVs it can be hard to keep up with them all.The CX-60, CX-70, CX-80 and CX-90 form a comprehensive line-up of family-sized SUVs, and will be joined in 2026 by the new CX-5. But as we looked at what was missing from some of Australia’s favourite brands, it quickly became obvious what needs attention with Mazda.At the other end of the size spectrum, the pint-sized Mazda2 and CX-3 are still selling in reasonable volume (the CX-3 is actually the most popular model in its segment), but both suffered double-digit sales declines in 2025.Both are also getting old and there is no public plan to replace them anytime soon. While Mazda may very well be working on replacements, if they aren’t it would leave a huge gap in the brand’s line-up.While Mazda was one of the first brands to embrace the concept of ‘semi-premium’ and shift from a model of selling purely on volume and instead focus on profitability, even if it meant fewer sales, giving up this part of the market would be a risky move.There is no question the city car market is in terminal decline, with the Mazda2 only up against the MG3 and Suzuki Swift these days, but there is still enough volume in the compact SUV market to make a CX-3 replacement viable.More importantly, losing either or both of these models would immediately raise the cost of entry to the Mazda brand, which would lock out many first-time new-car buyers. Instead they will go and buy something else, perhaps an MG3, Chery Tiggo 4 Pro or BYD Atto 1 and get integrated into those brands’ systems — just like countless Mazda2 and CX-3 customers have no doubt done in recent years. The challenge for brands like Mazda in the current market situation is it is incredibly difficult to compete with the new wave of Chinese brands on price, especially at the lower end of the market. This means a generation of buyers will get familiar with these brands and could end up staying for years to come if they have a good experience.Mazda should be well aware of that, because that’s the exact tactic that the Japanese brands used in the 1980s and ‘90s, and it’s what the South Korean brands did in the 2000s. Looking at the sales chart it’s dominated by Japanese and Korean brands, but nothing is static in this market so if Mazda abandons the small car/SUV space, it may not hurt in the short-term, but could have big consequences in the long-term.

If there is one word to describe the Australian car industry in 2026, it’s diversity.