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Believe it or not, we’re now three quarters of the way through 2025. Where did the year go?
As we kick off the final quarter, it’s a perfect time to take stock and look at where the top 10 brands are sitting, and make some predictions about where they might end up come the end of this very busy year.
It’s been a bumper year of new-model launches, and while the so-called legacy brands haven’t taken their foot off the brake, the model activity has been largely led by new or recently arrived Chinese brands.
And it’s clear from the January to September sales figures that these carmakers are gunning for the top five.
But first, let’s look at the top of the charts. In news that will surprise absolutely no one, Toyota is way out in front for year-to-date sales, with more than 181,000 vehicles sold. Clearly no brand will come within spitting distance of Toyota this year, so let’s move on to more interesting stories in the sales charts.
There are a few brand battles playing out in the top 10, and towards the top it’s Ford versus Mazda. At the end of Q3, just 639 sales separate the two brands, with Ford (70,881) just edging out Mazda (70,242) for second place. But will the Blue Oval remain ahead come the end of 2025?
New product coming for Mazda before December 31 includes the entry-level 2.5-litre naturally aspirated petrol engine for the CX-60 family SUV and the new 2.2-litre diesel for the BT-50 ute. Next year will be busier thanks to the new-gen CX-5 and likely the Mazda6e electric sedan.
Similarly Ford only has EV and plug-in hybrid versions of the Transit Custom coming, as well as expected launches for the Ranger Super Duty and a refresh for the Mustang Mach-E EV.
On balance, it looks like Ford will have a bit more momentum to hold second place at the end of 2025.
Korean sister brands Kia and Hyundai are also locked in a sales tussle, with Kia currently holding fourth place overall on 62,884 sales, about 4400 ahead of Hyundai on 58,458.
Kia’s sales are steady for the year, while Hyundai is up by a little over 8.0 per cent. It remains to be seen if Kia's Tasman will add any meaningful volume to Kia’s tally, but in September the new ute found a total of 806 homes.
Hyundai is unlikely to get a boost from its pricier new-gen Palisade three-row SUV, so our prediction is that Kia will comfortably win this battle, for this year at least.
Mitsubishi is in sixth place overall to the end of September and the Japanese brand should hold that position at the end of the year. The company is about to launch the new-gen ASX and while it’s more expensive than the completely unrelated model it replaces, it should give Mitsubishi at least some extra volume.
The company also has decent remaining stock of the discontinued Pajero Sport, but they’d better hurry up with the replacement for the off-roader because it’s in danger of being left behind.
Here’s where things get interesting.
In seventh, eighth and ninth place, respectively, we have Chinese carmakers GWM, BYD and MG in their own battle.
GWM is currently ahead in seventh place with 39,343, and those sales are up 23.7 per cent year on year, but BYD is hot on its heels with 37,923 sales. That’s a massive 150 per cent increase on BYD’s tally in the same period last year, and it’s just 1420 units behind GWM.
GWM has just announced a plug-in hybrid version of the Tank 500 is coming soon, but that’s not going to add massive volume.
BYD on the other hand has just confirmed four new models are launching in the coming months. The Sealion 5 medium SUV and Sealion 8 seven seat SUV (both plug-in hybrids) might make it to Australia before the end of 2025, but it could push into 2026.
But the Atto 1 light electric hatch and Atto 2 small electric SUV will land in November, and the former will take the title of Australia’s cheapest EV. The latter is also entering a hot segment competing with the Kia EV3 and more.
This points to BYD having the numbers to overtake GWM and capture seventh place at the close of business in 2025. This goes some way to helping BYD’s of being a top three brand in Australia before 2030.
Given MG’s sales of 32,620 is more than 5000 units behind BYD, and factoring in its 9.6 per cent year-on-year sales slide, it’s unlikely it will chase its compatriots.
It should, however, hold ninth place given the popularity of models like the ZS small SUV, the new ‘Super Hybrid’ version of the HS and the well received S5 electric small SUV.
That leaves Isuzu Ute in tenth place with 31,760 units. It is only 2881 units ahead of Subaru which is just outside the top 10 on 28,879 sales, but the new-gen Forester should only grow its share of the medium SUV segment between now and January, so this battle could be tight.
That new 2.2L unit in the D-Max and MU-X twins should inject some interest into Isuzu, so we reckon it might just hold its place in the top 10.
Top 10 brands in Australia year-to-date sales
| Position | Brand | YTD sales | Variance % |
| 1 | Toyota | 181,809 | -1.0% |
| 2 | Ford | 70,881 | -4.9% |
| 3 | Mazda | 70,242 | -4.4% |
| 4 | Kia | 62,884 | +0.7% |
| 5 | Hyundai | 58,458 | +8.4% |
| 6 | Mitsubishi | 47,650 | -16.4% |
| 7 | GWM | 39,343 | +23.7% |
| 8 | BYD | 37,923 | +149.5% |
| 9 | MG | 32,620 | -9.6% |
| 10 | Isuzu | 31,760 | -15.5% |
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