Have we hit peak ute? Despite Ford Ranger 2024 sales leadership, have dual cabs including the once mighty Toyota HiLux, Isuzu D-Max and Mitsubishi Triton hit the popularity wall?

In recent years the pointy end of the Australian new vehicle sales race has reflected our seemingly insatiable appetite for dual cab utes, with the Ford Ranger and Toyota HiLux locked in a fierce arm wrestle to determine the annual winner.

And it looked like business as usual in 2024 with the Ford Ranger at the top of the table for the second year in a row. But its long-term nemesis, and the country’s best seller for most of the past decade, the Toyota HiLux had slipped to third behind its RAV4 stablemate.

Not a huge surprise given the medium SUV segment is easily the biggest in the Aussie market. 

But, have we hit peak ute? And with a slew of new light commercial contenders heading this way in 2025 the question only gets more interesting.

To put the situation in context, here’s some ‘last five years’ history. Over the four years from 2020 to 2023 ute registrations (4x2 and 4x4, excluding large US pick-ups) increased 36 per cent from 176,036 to 239,399.

Over the same period the total market grew 33 percent, so voracious ute consumption was just ahead of the overall curve.

However, in 2024 total ute sales declined a little over four per cent year-on-year, while the market grew marginally, with, as mentioned, the once dominant HiLux dropping to the third step of the podium.

At the same time big US pick-ups have taken off with RAM virtually having the segment to itself in 2020, the Chevy Silverado joining the party in earnest the next year and Ford’s F-150 rolling into view in 2023. 

In fact, numbers expanded 209 per cent from 3356 units in 2020 to 10,363 at the end of 2023, and with Toyota’s Tundra more of a full-time contender in 2024, category sales rose fractionally last year.

So, is that it? Have enough people made the decision to (literally) step up to an oversize ute that numbers for more traditional dual cabs have diminished?

Could be, but there’s another variable destined to further muddy the waters and push utes even further down the sales leader board.

Stand by for some big 2025 arrivals including the BYD Shark 6 and much-anticipated Kia Tasman.

There will also be updates for the GWM Cannon and Jeep Gladiator in the first quarter, a refreshed Mitsubishi Triton later in the first half and a PHEV version of the Ranger late in the year.

So, in a mature vehicle market it’s more an increased number of competitors that’s likely to dilute the market share of established players rather than dull overall ute demand.

And that’s a sentiment shared by Toyota Australia’s Vice President Sales, Marketing and Franchise Operations, Sean Hanley.

Speaking at the brand’s announcement of its 2024 market leadership, Mr Hanley said of the outlook for the ute segment in 2025, “It’s going to be a super competitive market, that ute market in particular. 

“I think it's going to be incredibly dynamic. I’m not necessarily sharing a view that it's going to grow astronomically because of the new entrants. It may, I could be wrong, but it’ll be interesting to watch.

“Looking towards the future, we already know that the number of ute models available to Australian buyers will expand rapidly. 

“They’ll be competing for an overall ute market that is likely to remain steady, which suggests that the average sales per model will come down as a result,” Mr Hanley said.