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Ok, so it is looking like it might be time for a little mea culpa from me on the whole HiLux thing.
Not so long ago, I penned a piece called ‘what in the HiLux hell is Toyota thinking?’, and in it I accused the Japanese giant of not doing enough with its incoming ute to hold off competition from Ford with the Ranger PHEV, BYD and the Shark 6, and the litany of other new utes, either here or incoming, from Chinese brands like JAC, MG, Chery and so many more.
But now I think Toyota may have been playing chess while I was playing checkers with its strategy, because now giving the old HiLux a bit of a nip and tuck to buy a little time is looking like a masterstroke.
What in the HiLux hell is Toyota thinking? | Opinion
Toyota goes against the grain again! Japanese giant doesn't need long-range plug-in hybrids as BYD, Geely, Chery and more start making plug-in PHEV models with 200-plus km of EV driving range
'Plug-in hybrid is going to go gangbusters' said Toyota Australia, but it's waiting 'a few years' to go big on PHEVs
But first, a recap. A ‘new’ HiLux is coming, either late this year or early next, and while Toyota’s ageing workhorse is well and truly due for an entirely new model, it would appear Toyota will just tinker around the edges of the current model, recycling the platform, the engine, the key dimensions and much of the body.
By the look of the spy pictures, it will get new technology and materials in the cabin, a new front-end look and new lighting, but the important bits will likely carry over to a new model.
Now you could - well, I certainly did - accuse Toyota of rolling the arm over at a time when the ute segment has never been so crowded, nor so competitive. But I think there might be a different strategy at play here.
Diesel is done for in Australia, of this there is no doubt. It’s only a question of when. And given a new ute’s lifecycle can be 10 years, it’s unlikely we’ll still be fitting diesel engine to new cars in 2035 or 2036. And we don’t really know what’s going to replace it.
Will Ford’s plug-in Ranger be a hit? Maybe. Will long-promised solid-state battery technology finally allow us to electrify commercial vehicles without sacrificing capability? We will have to wait and see. And will any of the ute giants be able to convince the dual-cab faithful to use anything other than diesel? Again, it’s a question mark.
Until those questions are answered, I suspect Toyota — rather than investing heavily in a properly all-new model right now — is keeping its powder dry on the future of the HiLux, and instead squeezing the diesel-powered dual-cab fruit for a little more juice before time runs out.
We know Toyota is working on plug-in hybrid technology that will unlock a 200km EV-only range, and a total 1200kms from a tank, for example. And, a little closer to the now, we know the brand is finally challenging its diesel followers with strong hybrid product.
Look to the LandCruiser, for example. The 300 Series will introduce a petrol-hybrid powertrain next year, and with it, try to tempt LC300 owners out of their diesels and into a petrol-powered model.
A canary down the coal mine for an (actually) new HiLux?
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