Holden exports much smaller than expected

Holden is on track for a head-on crash with the new Coalition Government after a new export deal with the US appears unlikely to give the embattled car-maker the boost it needs.

A General Motors executive in North America has revealed overnight just how small Holden's latest export deal to the US really is, with fewer than 1000 cars expected to be shipped there by the end of this year - a fraction of the exports in its glory days.

While in opposition Tony Abbott told the struggling car-maker before the election it must export to remain viable and vowed to cut $500 million from industry funding. Holden is in trouble on both counts because company boss Mike Devereux said the car-maker would shut its manufacturing operations if the Coalition followed through on its pre-election promise to cut funding to the industry.

John Fitzpatrick, marketing manager for Chevrolet's performance cars, told respected US industry journal Edmunds.com that "around 900" cars will be shipped later this year. When asked if Chevrolet had targeted between 1700 and 2000 sales annually Mr Fitzpatrick reportedly told Edmunds.com: "I would agree".

Holden would not comment on the export forecasts revealed by its North American colleague but a statement to News Corp from the company said: "GM Holden congratulates Tony Abbott and the Liberal-National Coalition on their election win. We now look forward to sitting down with the Abbott Government to have detailed discussions about future automotive policy."

Holden is yet to secure a meeting time with the Prime Minister's office, which has not announced its Cabinet. Sophie Mirabella, who was the shadow industry minister, is also unlikely to take over the role given that she is expected to lose her Victorian seat to Independent Cathy McGowan.

A Holden spokesman said the company hoped to meet with the Federal Government in the coming weeks. The niche export deal was revealed as South Australian Liberal leader Steven Marshall declared car producer Holden would be safe under a Coalition government.

"Mr Abbott and the Coalition want to see Holden stay here in Australia and grow," he told reporters yesterday. "That means a sensible, adult plan to ensure the viability of the sector." Mr Marshall did, however, concede the Coalition would proceed with its industry review by the Productivity Commission.

Labor SA Premier Jay Weatherill believes that will be enough for Holden to close its car-making factory in Elizabeth. "The fact that they're (the Coalition) not proposing any additional funding will definitely mean Holden does not have a (manufacturing) future in Australia," he said.

Independent Senator Nick Xenophon, who was easily returned during last weekend's election, said: "If the new government wants to make an enemy of me for the next six years, they will do so by dudding Holden and I don't think they want to do that. 

In 2004 and 2005 Holden shipped 31,500 Monaros to the US as a Pontiac GTO - more than twice the number of Monaros sold locally over four years.

More than 41,000 Commodores were exported to North America as Pontiacs between November 2007 and February 2009, almost equivalent to Holden's annual sales of Commodore at the time - but the deal ended when the Pontiac brand was axed in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.

With the strong Australian dollar forcing a high price in North America, General Motors expects to sell a maximum of just 2000 new Commodores annually when the model returns to the US as a Chevrolet, or about 2.5 per cent of Holden's forecast yearly production. A recent dip in the Australian dollar to about 90c US does not appear to have changed this view.

Holden began building US export versions of the new Commodore on the Elizabeth SA production line on August 16 and the first shipment of cars is due to leave Adelaide by the end of this month before going on sale in November.

"If you look at its competitors, it's going up against the Dodge Charger SRT8, the Chrysler 300 SRT8 and the Ford Taurus SHO," Mr Fitzpatrick told Edmunds.com. "If you look at how many cars are in that segment, it is only about 3000 to 5000 cars for the entire calendar year."

The Chevrolet marketing man told reporters the US version of the Commodore would likely only be sold in about half of the company's 3000 dealers nationwide. "We don't have expectations that the car is going to set up a whole new segment but we do expect to do very well against those competitors," Mr Fitzpatrick told Edmunds.com.

This reporter is on Twitter: @JoshuaDowling