Why you might not be forced into an electric car by 2030: Diesel dual-cab utes like the Ford Ranger, Toyota HiLux and Isuzu D-Max are like Coco Pops and Australia can't get enough of them | Opinion

Lost amid all the talk of electric cars compared to petrol models, the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) and other global regulations, was the most important element the car industry needs to survive - consumer demand.

Personally, I agree that local lawmakers needed to do something, anything, to provide us with more fuel-efficient cars, and frankly waited far too long to take any meaningful action. But as the old saying goes, you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.

A flood of electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and the like have hit Australian showrooms in recent years, yet vehicles with internal combustion engines still make up more than 70 per cent of new-car sales so far in 2025.

The cold, hard reality for the Australian electric car market is much of its success and headline-grabbing growth was off the back of a single brand, Tesla, and the American company now finds itself in steep sales decline.

Only a few short years ago it seemed like we’d reached the tipping point for electric cars. So many big name brands made commitments to go ‘all-electric’ by the end of the decade, convinced that was the way the market would move as more and more governments around the world pushed legislation in that direction.

The United Kingdom announced plans to ban the internal combustion engine by 2035, Norway is aiming to do it by 2030 and other countries set similar lofty ambitions. But they forgot about consumer demand and it’s clear from sales figures that new-car buyers, particularly those in Australia, are not ready, willing or able to make the switch from petrol power to electric.

Which is exactly how a free market economy works, customers have choice and they choose what they prefer, not what they’re told they should like.

In some respects the modern car industry reminds me of breakfast cereal. Those of a certain age will remember when the government mandated the ‘health star ratings’ on cereals, so buyers could understand what they’re eating. Naturally cereals with high fibre, wholegrains and other similar ingredients rate higher than your chocolate-loaded Coco Pops - and yet people still buy Coco Pops because they like the taste.

It’s the same for cars. Some among us will opt for a Tesla (the All-Bran of cars?) but lots of us still love our utes (the automotive equivalent of Coco Pops, I guess).

Putting aside this clumsy cereal-related metaphor, it has been fascinating to watch as multiple carmakers quickly try to change course, which (to use another metaphor) is about as quick and easy as turning a container ship.

The problem for carmakers is it isn’t just as simple as deciding to switch back from electric to petrol power. Billions of dollars will have been spent and factories, workforces and supply chains established to make millions of electric cars, you can’t just flip a switch and overnight start making petrol cars again.

In the not-too-distant past carmakers were priding themselves on building bespoke EV platforms that allowed for more spacious cabins and bolder, unique designs. Nowadays they’re talking about ‘tactical flexibility’ and other clever names for platforms capable of accepting both electric and internal combustion powertrains.

We’ve seen brands like Mercedes-Benz, Porsche and others slowly walking back their previous bold ‘EV is the future’ claims as they realised that people don’t want them. Just this week I sat through an Audi presentation where the brand discussed its dual strategy of developing a new range of combustion vehicles to see it through for the next decade, alongside its previously announced electric expansion.

This is no slight on the brands, but rather a difficult reminder that in any consumer-focused business - which the car industry is - the customer is always right. So even with the government’s best efforts to clear up the industry, ultimately it’s you that will decide what cars we’ll be driving in 2030 and beyond.

Although, just to return to my cereal metaphor for a moment, there is a compromise solution and it’s likely to be the answer in the short-to-medium term. You see, Kellogg's realised if they make Coco Pops with multigrains and less sugar and put it in a different shape, then Coco Pops Chocos can get a four-star health rating. And that’s the breakfast equivalent of a plug-in hybrid, which we’ve already begun to see on the rise.

Granted they started from a low base but plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales are up more than 200 per cent in the first two months of 2025, thanks to models like the BYD Shark 6. When the Ford Ranger PHEV arrives - and other models go on sale across a variety of brands - this previously niche technology could be the solution. And I say this with some confidence because even Toyota, the overwhelming market leader and a brand that does not offer a car it does not think it can sell successfully, will have PHEVs in showrooms by the end of 2025.

So, whether it’s breakfast or your car, making smarter, healthier choices is important and the decision you make will help shape the future of what we drive more than any regulatory oversight.