"There will be some failures": The five Australian car brands most at risk from the rise of Chinese car makers like Chery, MG, Leapmotor, JAC, BYD, GWM and Haval

The Australian new-car market is facing a period of almost unprecedented change, say some legacy manufacturers, with the influx of new Chinese brands set to push out established manufacturers in what is already one of the world's most congested and competitive markets.

That's the word from brands like Kia and others, who say the increased competition will lead to "failures" in the new-car market.

"I believe (the market) will look very, very different. I think that the mix of country-of-origin is going to change dramatically," says Kia Australia CEO Damien Meredith.

"There will be some successes, and there will some failures. Will it affect some of the legacy brands that are in Australia? I think probably yes. People hate the status quo changing, but guess what? It's going to change. And I think it's going to change dramatically."

Brands like MG and GWM have already made signifiant inroads into the Australian new-car sales race. They've now been joined by brands like Chery and BYD. The Stellantis-backed Leapmotor is around the corner, JAC will take aim at the dual-cab ute market, and more high-end brands like Zeekr and Geely have announced their intentions to launch, too.

That is only scratching the surface of the new brands on the horizon, too. And in a market that sells 1.1m to 1.2m vehicles in a good year (20 per cent of which are Toyota models), it leaves a lot of brands fighting over what it left.

MG, for example, has cemented itself inside Australia's top 10, shifting 58,346 vehicles last year. And if its fellow Chinese manufacturers hope to emulate that success, then they will be taking a large number of sales off the table.

The new brands' sales will have to come from somewhere, and any impact to other manufacturers' totals will no doubt put them at risk.

The only fair way to compile such a list is to look at the brands that play in the mainstream space (so excluding lux models like Rolls-Royce and supercar brands like McLaren), and then focus on those with the smallest sales totals.

It must be pointed out that the below list was collated using sales data focusing on brands selling less than 3000 units per annum. CarsGuide doesn't have access to a brand's future plans, and any or all of the manufacturers listed below could sell significantly more models this year.

Citroen - 228 sales in 2023

Citroen is a brand with fierce loyalists drawn to its out-of-the-box thinking on car design and ergonomics, but it's sales have been locked at less than 250 for the past few years.

Jaguar - 581 sales in 2023

Jaguar sales have been on a slide for the past five years, recording an alarming 74 per cent sales decline. Part of that is down to severe stock shortages experienced in 2022, but it's also owing to the global reinvention of the Jaguar brand, going from ICE to electric, with the effects of the shift yet to hit dealerships in Australia.

Alfa Romeo - 716 sales in 2023

Everyone's second-favourite brand has continued to stall in Australia, despite multiple global brand re-launches. There is hope on the horizon for the Italian brand – sales actually increased in 2023, by 25.4 per cent owing to the arrival of the new Tonale small SUV and the all-electric Junior is around the corner, too.

Fiat - 755 sales in 2023

The raw numbers don't do Fiat justice in Australia, where the brand effectively sells only one model, the Fiat 500 and its Abarth twin. And its numbers are growing, up 111.5 per cent year on year in 2023. And with the electric 500e now here, and more global models being unveiled, you'd expect to see Fiat's numbers grow.

Genesis - 1916 sales in 2023

Again, a brand done a disservice by the hard data. Genesis is growing in Australia, up 84.4 per cent on its 2022 total, which was up 41.6 per cent on its 2021 numbers. And with a heap of new ICE and electric product, and the backing of the Korean giant Hyundai, Genesis' numbers should only climb from here.

Peugeot - 2516 sales in 2023

The strongest sales performer on our list, Peugeot has comfortably shifted in excess of 2000 cars per year for the past three years, and sales were up more than 20 per cent in 2023. And, with a roll-out of electric vehicles either here or on their way, its product lineup will diversify further, too.