China is winning! While BYD Shark 6, Chery Tiggo 4 Pro and GWM Haval Jolion sales roar ahead, established brands and evergreen models are suffering in a shrinking new-vehicle market

It was building for a long time, but now the giant wave of Chinese challenger brands entering the Australian new-car market has hit our shores with a vengeance.

In a mature, and so far this year, shrinking market, that means something’s got to give in terms of sales winners and losers. And it’s looking increasingly like the newcomers are gaining the upper hand.

While the most recent entries like Geely, JAC, Leapmotor and Zeekr are still finding their feet, slightly more ‘established’ brands like BYD, Chery and GWM continue to build sales momentum.

In order of magnitude, the leader in terms of first quarter gains is Chery, up no less than 217 per cent year-on-year (to the end of March).

The now familiar Omoda 5 is down fractionally, but the Tiggo series SUV line-up of 4 Pro, 7 Pro and 8 Pro Max has moved the brand up massively.

It’s a similar story at BYD, where its longest serving models have taken a big step backwards with the Atto 3 down 72.9 per cent, the Dolphin 69 per cent behind and the Seal trailing its 2024 numbers by a whopping 81 per cent.

But those falls have been more than offset by the arrival of the Shark 6 ute (a massive hit) and well as the Sealion 6 and Sealion 7 SUVs. Overall BYD is ahead of last year’s first quarter result by a very healthy 95.6 per cent.

Rounding out the Chinese top three is GWM. Down on the Ora (-53 per cent) and Tank 300 (-24 per cent) but up on its stalwart Haval Jolion (+20.2 per cent) for an overall brand gain of 13.5 per cent.

Underneath that go-ahead trio is a large group of makes, residing in what I’m calling 'the stability band', up or down less than 10 per cent on their 2024 results. Heavy hitters like Toyota (+2.8 per cent), Mazda (+5.7 per cent) and Ford (-5.6 per cent) along with other mainstream players including Honda, Hyundai, Kia, MG, Mitsubishi and Subaru. 

Then there are the brands with a relatively low-scoring start to the year, potentially suffering courtesy of the growth experienced by the recent arrivals mentioned above.

Isuzu Ute is down close to 29 per cent, with the D-Max 4x4 23.4 per cent behind and the MU-X SUV trailing its 2024 number by 39.9 per cent.

Jeep has taken a turn down struggle street with the Grand Cherokee now deleted after modest sales and the Avenger EV SUV failing to fire. It’s down 27.5 per cent overall.  

LDV is a Chinese exception, experiencing a 21.7 per cent drop. Although the Deliver 7 van is starting to take off, the T60 4x4 ute has fallen 30.2 per cent.

Nissan has suffered falls across its line-up, with everything from the Juke and Qashqai to the X-Trail and Navara down year-to-date, for an overall year-on-year decrease of 25.3 per cent.

Skoda has a rush of fresh metal heading for local showrooms this year, but for the time being it’s 29.2 per cent behind Q1 2024.

SsangYong has welcomed the new Torres SUV but its Korando stablemate is down 67.1 per cent and the Musso ute is 29.3 per cent behind. Overall, the brand is down 18.6 per cent.

Suzuki is also lagging, with the Ignis on the way out for this market, the S-Cross going the same way and the Swift down 35.7 per cent. Overall drop is 15.6 per cent.

Volkswagen has belatedly started the roll-out of its ID. EV models and there’s a new Multivan in showrooms as well as updates for the Caddy and Crafter light-commercial vans. Golf is up (+44.1 per cent), as is Touareg (+64.0 per cent).

But the hugely important Tiguan and Tiguan Allspace are down 50.7 and 13.7 per cent, respectively, in the lead up to their replacements arriving in Australia. And the Amarok ute is 35.8 per cent behind its 2024 result for the first quarter. Overall, the brand is down 19.2 per cent.

In the second quarter it's going to be fascinating to see if the new order players continue to shake up the Aussie new-car market. Like we said, something's got to (continue to) give!